Yes, We sure do. Take a look at the total rainfall for the past 14 days from the always awesome Oklahoma Mesonet:
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| Image can be found here: 14 Day Rainfall Accumulation |
Only place that has received more than 1" would be the lucky people in Mt. Herman. Tulsa is currently down over 11" for the year. Oklahoma could sure use some good soaking rainfall, and it looks like our wish might be granted!
A cutoff low scenario looks to be setting up over the weekend. Let's take a look at how this may play out. Here is what one model, the GFS, is suggesting will happen Sunday evening at 6pm:
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| Image from www.weatherbell.com |
Notice the "L" on the southwestern half of the state and the rain on the right side of it. Now take a look at midnight Sunday:
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| Image from www.weatherbell.com |
The "L" goes away. Technically, It's still there, right in the south central part of Oklahoma. Notice how the rain just moves across the state from west to east. If this model were to verify, a good soaking rain would impact the state. One of the other models we look at, the European, is also suggesting this scenario. Agreement this far out is something we need to take into account, as that is a good sign this may happen. Our friends at the Climate Prediction Center also agree with this senerio because take a look at their 6 to 10 day precipitation map:
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| 6 to 10 day Precipitation Outlooks can always be found here: CPC 6 to 10 |
Bullseye right over Oklahoma for Above normal rainfall? I'll take that anyday! How much could we get? Both of the Models(GFS and EURO) agree on about 1", with the GFS a little more aggressive with higher totals. Official forecast from the Weather Predication Center is shown here:
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| Image can be found here: WPC Day 1-7 QPF |
So, good chances for a soaking rain this weekend. When will it happen? Looks like at the moment it will occur late Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. This may change as we get closer to time. Best way to keep up with the changes? Check out my social media profiles listed below for the latest information and updates!
Follow Jordan Overton on Twitter: @JordanoWX
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