Winter has arrived.

Well, We did. Thanks to a cold front that was one of the strongest we have seen this year. Look at a comparison of the highs Monday to the highs Tuesday:

Some places in the panhandle dropped almost 50 degrees! The cold is here to stay, as we can see by the latest run of the GFS model. Don't focus on exact numbers, just look at the general trend:

Image from www.weatherbell.com

Now, If it's going to be cold, at least we could get some snow, right? Well, we may be in luck! The models are going back and forth on this weekend. This flip flopping is lowering confidence dramatically for the event. The main point I want to stress is there is a good chance for some precipitation Saturday and Sunday, just still unsure what type it will be. For example, Let's compare the GFS run from Wednesday morning to the GFS run from Tuesday morning (As I say all the time, NOT a forecast just a model):

Tuesday Morning GFS snowfall amounts by Sunday at 6PM:

Map from www.weatherbell.com

Now look at what Wednesday mornings run for snowfall amounts by Sunday at 6PM:

Map from www.weatherbell.com

Big differences. It goes from a dusting to a couple inches in parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. My point? Try to forecast a model that is constantly flip flopping back and forth like this. It's a headache. This is why we can't just look at one run and say blizzard or nothing. The run to run consistency is extremely poor, leading to an overall very low confidence forecast.

So you might ask, How do you forecast something like this? Well, we wait till the model shows some better run to run consistency. Typically, as we get closer to the event the higher accuracy the model has. What can I take away from this? The model is consistently putting out some sort of precipitation, just unsure what type it will be. We will have to watch what the temperatures are higher up in the atmosphere and what the surface temperatures are by the time the weekend comes.

As we are talking about winter precipitation, let's take a quick look at what determines rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain:

Image can be found here: http://www.weathergamut.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/winter_precip.jpg

My two cents(forecast): We could have to deal with some wintry precipitation. Follow me on Twitter and Facebook. I will post the latest information there. You can find the links below:

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