Friday, May 15, 2015

Severe Weather Possible Saturday

Saturday offers the potential for a few severe storms, so let's check it out:

SATURDAY:

First off, let's take a look at the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

The area in orange has the best shot for severe weather. Image from the SPC Website:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Saturday should start off with a complex of storms moving through the state in the early morning.

After those storms move out, eyes turn to the western half of the state* for development. The big question is how quickly will we clear out? The faster the area clears out, the better chance for development and severe storms.

You can track the storms with WARN Live Interactive Radar Here: Warn Live Radar

It appears that the storms that do develop during the afternoon tomorrow will form a line that will come racing through our half of the state during the evening.* Hail, winds, and an isolated tornado will be possible.

*Note that this is not set in stone. I am simply giving you a broad idea what to expect and how things might play out. The locations and timing of this is VERY likely to change. I will try to update this post as that happens but more frequent updates will be posted on my Twitter and Facebook pages.

As always, the forecast changes frequently so I encourage you to connect with me on my social media profiles listed below for updated forecasts.

My facebook page: @JordanoWX
Twitter: @JordanoWX

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Oklahoma Earthquakes and What You Can Do About Them

The chart shows all magnitudes of earthquakes. (0.0 and up)


If you have lived in Oklahoma the past few years, there is a 75 percent chance you have felt an earthquake. Earthquakes have been on a drastic increase in recent years, and geologists are concerned it is only a matter of time before a damaging earthquake occurs.

"The rate of earthquakes in Oklahoma has increased remarkably since October 2013–by about 50 percent – significantly increasing the chance for a damaging magnitude 5.5 or greater quake in central Oklahoma." 

In 2009, Oklahoma saw a total of 50* earthquakes. Yes, just 50 for the entire year. It sounds pretty hard to believe that since last year in 2014 we had 5,417*. Since 2009, the number of earthquakes has been exponentially increasing. The frequency of earthquakes has increased to where we have at least two a day.

Geologists fear that the increase in earthquakes would suggest that a large, damaging earthquake has a higher probability of occurring. In a joint press release issued last year by the United States Geological Survey and the Oklahoma Geological Survey, “The rate of earthquakes in Oklahoma has increased remarkably since October 2013–by about 50 percent – significantly increasing the chance for a damaging magnitude 5.5 or greater quake in central Oklahoma.”

The number of earthquakes being reported felt has also increased dramatically. In Nov. of 2011, a 5.6 magnitude earthquake centered in the town of Prague, damaged buildings and injured a few people. It is the largest earthquake ever recorded in Oklahoma history.

Many geologists have come to a conclusion that it is no longer a matter of “if” a damaging earthquake will occur, but rather “when” it will occur.

With the earthquakes on a drastic rise, someone might ask what one can do to prepare themselves for the “Big One”?    

One of the first things you can do is make sure your home is secure. You should also have a family communication plan and an emergency earthquake kit prepared. An earthquake drill with your family would also be a good idea so that family members know what to do when an earthquake occurs.

What does an earthquake kit consist of?

The following is a list from ready.gov on what a kit should contain:

1) Water- one gallon of water per person per day for at least three days, for drinking and sanitation
2) Food- at least a three-day supply of non-perishable food.
3)Battery-powered or hand crank radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert and extra batteries for both.
4) Flashlight and extra batteries.
5) First aid kit
6) Whistle to signal for help.
7) Dust mask to help filter contaminated air and plastic sheeting and duct tape to shelter-in-place.
8) Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal sanitation.
9) Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities.
10) Manual can opener for food.
11) Local maps
12) Cell phone with chargers, inverter or solar charger.

Many insurance companies in Oklahoma have started offering earthquake insurance to its customers. Although it may seem like a silly thing to most, let’s not forget that an earthquake has the potential to cause catastrophic damage. On Aug. 24, 2014, a 6.0 magnitude earthquake struck South Napa Valley, Cali. It injured 208 people and killed one. The total economic losses for that earthquake is estimated around $400 million.**

Earthquake insurance could help a person after an earthquake occurs, but what about during? I have listed a few tips on what to do during an earthquake. These tips are also tips from ready.gov, an emergency preparedness website.

If you are inside your home:

1) Stay away from glass, windows, outside doors and walls, and anything that could fall, such as lighting fixtures or furniture.
2) DO NOT get in a doorway as this does not provide protection from falling or flying objects and you likely will not be able to remain standing.
3) Stay inside until the shaking stops and it is safe to go outside. Do not exit a building during the shaking. Research has shown that most injuries occur when people inside buildings attempt to move to a different location inside the building or try to leave.
4) DO NOT use the elevators.
5) Be aware that the electricity may go out or the sprinkler systems or fire alarms may turn on.

If you are outside or in your vehicle:

1) If you can, move away from buildings, streetlights, and utility wires.
2) Stop as quickly as safety permits and stay in the vehicle. Avoid stopping near or under buildings, trees, overpasses, and utility wires.
3) Proceed cautiously once the earthquake has stopped. Avoid roads, bridges, or ramps that might have been damaged by the earthquake.

*The total number of all earthquakes magnitude 0.0 and above. This information is from the Oklahoma Geological Survey earthquake catalogs.
**Information and estimates are from the United States Geological Survey.

Follow Jordan Overton on Twitter: @JordanoWX

Monday, April 6, 2015

Significant Severe Weather Possible this Week

Severe Weather is in the forecast. Let's break down the threat and take an closer look at the weather situation.

TUESDAY:*
First, Let's take a look at the official risk area from the Storm Prediction Center:




SPC Outlook for Tuesday, April 7


At this time, a slight risk* for severe storms is present. The threat for severe storms is there, but it looks like a highly conditional threat. In other words, if a storm is able to get going, the environment is highly conductive of severe weather with all modes possible. The million dollar question is "IF" a storm can get going. IF any storms do get going, they would likely not reach our area until around sunset.* Tuesdays threat remains highly in question. It will be one of those "wait and see" type of days. One other scenario is that a complex develops in southeastern Kansas and brushes the far northeast corners of the viewing area.*

WEDNESDAY:*
Again, Let's take a look at the official risk area from the Storm Prediction Center:


SPC Outlook for Wednesday, April 6



At this time, a enhanced risk* for severe storms in present. This day is the most concerning day of all. All modes of severe weather will be possible. As most severe events are, this looks to occur during the afternoon and evening hours*. The most likely scenario is that storms could develop along the dry line in Western Oklahoma and work towards the viewing area late in the day*. When it comes to a general, widespread threat for severe, this day is the most favorable. Significant severe weather will be possible.

THURSDAY:*
Again, Let's take a look at the official risk area from the Storm Prediction Center:


SPC Outlook for Thursday, April 8


At this time, a slight risk* for severe storms is present. Be aware that this could shift back to the west* some. Thursdays risk area will depend on how Tuesday and especially Wednesday go*. Either way, significant severe weather is possible on Thursday*. All modes are possible.

The Storm Prediction Center has updated their severe weather risk categories for this storm season. Here is a graphic that outlines what each category means:




The big thing to take away from this post is that severe weather is possible multiple days this week. It is spring, and you should be prepared for the worst.

*Note that this is not set in stone. I am simply giving you a broad idea what to expect and how things might play out. The locations, timing, and risk categories are VERY likely to change. I will try to update this post as that happens but, more frequent updates will be posted on my Twitter and Facebook pages. The links to those are posted below.

My Facebook Page: JordanoWX
Twitter: @JordanoWX