A Big Storm on the Horizon?

With the mayhem of the holiday season ongoing, thought it would be good to write up a blog post with my thoughts on the weather the next week or two.

First and foremost, here is a look at Christmas Eve and Christmas Day:

Christmas Eve:

Christmas Day:

After Christmas, things start to get interesting. A strong storm system moving into the state could bring lots of heavy rain and the potential for a wintry mix. One thing that is for sure, there will be lots of moisture and flooding will be possible in many areas. There are a few other things that I'm pretty confident will happen.

1) Parts of Eastern Oklahoma could see significant rainfall. (up to 7" locally possible) 

2) Parts of Western Oklahoma could see heavy snow that could impact travel.

The timing for this system is for it to start on Saturday and last through Monday. 

The biggest question right now is how much cold air is in place when the system starts to move out on Monday. Should temperatures be at the freezing mark in Oklahoma City and Tulsa, things could get a little messy. 

The global models are not in very good agreement at the moment on what will happen. Part of the reason for that is because the system is not even on shore yet. That leads to an extremely low confidence forecast. Anyone who is saying that 12-24" of snow are going to blanket the metro areas Monday is really going out on a limb at this point. 

Hopefully, the next few days some better consistency shows up and it the details will become clearer.

There is absolutely no reason to panic. Timing and small changes in the forecast can greatly alter the impacts to any particular area. 

Either way, I'll be posting updates on Social Media and will try to write blog posts when I can. You can find links to my Social Media below.

Follow Jordan Overton on Twitter: @JordanoWX
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A Super Early Look at the Belam Forecast

Another arctic cold front will move through Oklahoma later this week, bring cold temperatures and a possibility for precipitation.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend as the week goes on, with upper 60s possible late Thursday.

A strong system works into the area just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday. Right now, Thanksgiving looks wet with heavy rainfall possible. A cold front then moves through the state Thursday night into Friday.

The cold front will usher in cold air Friday and Saturday. There is a possibility of precipitation behind the front. The biggest question is how much cold air is in place when that precipitation starts.

A wintry mix is not out of the question during Bedlam, but the probability is very low at this point.

The forecast models differ right now of the timing of the front and the amount of cold air in place, meaning any forecast this far out is a very low confidence forecast. Small changes in the timing of the front could make big differences in the forecast

One thing that is for sure, very cold temperatures, possibly at the freezing mark, can be expected when Oklahoma and Oklahoma State kick off at 7 p.m. on ABC.

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Could El Niño bring more rain and snow?

An El Niño advisory was issued in  early March by the Climate Prediction Center, which is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.

El Niño occurs when warm (above average) ocean water develops in the Pacific Ocean off the western coasts of South America and Mexico.

The “Niño Region”  is near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. It is here where scientists monitor sea surface temperatures to determine if an El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral phase is occurring. Illustration provided by the National Climate Data Center

La Niña, which is the opposite of El Niño, occurs when the water temperature is below average. If the sea surface temperature is near normal, it is considered an neutral phase.

The threshold for above or below average sea surface temperatures is 0.5 degrees Celsius. The past month the sea surface temperature in the Niño region has continued to rise above normal.

Gary McManus, the state climatologist, keeps an eye on Oklahoma climate and monitors the El Niño situation. He says the El Niño has become quite strong this year:

“The El Niño is actually quite strong for this time of year, having just strengthened in April and then into May.”

We are now continued to experience El Niño conditions  in May and now into early June.

The Climate Prediction Center says there is a 90 percent chance that El Niño conditions will continue for the summer of 2015, and an greater than 80 percent chance it will continue in the winter.

What are the affects of an El Niño in Oklahoma?

Typically, in El Niño years, we see cooler and wetter conditions for the state, especially during the spring.

“The impacts during the spring are generally a wetter and cooler than normal footprint across Texas and New Mexico, with Oklahoma being caught up in that pattern at times,” says McManus.

The month of April and May have continued to have above normal rainfall for Tulsa.

The official measurements for rainfall in Tulsa come from the rain gauge at the Tulsa International Airport.

Tulsa ended up with a total of 14.77” of rain for the month of May, which is nearly nine inches above normal.

According to the Oklahoma Mesonet, the month of May was the wettest month on record for the state, with an average of 14.40”.

Oklahoma has continued to see above normal rainfall for the month of May. Graphic  provided by the Oklahoma Mesonet

Another interesting thing to point out is that for the month of May, Tulsa recorded rain on 22 of the total 31 days. The normal number for the entire month is 11.

Oklahoma has experienced a widespread drought across the entire state for the past five years. The hardest hit areas have been the western half.

For the first time in many years, lakes and streams are starting to fill up again after being down by many feet for the duration of the drought.

Skiatook Lake, which is located northwest of Tulsa, was down nearly 17 feet at the beginning of the year.

The recent rains have brought the lake level up to just near six feet below normal. That’s a eleven foot improvement in about a month!

Lake side marinas and business  are profiting from the rising lake levels as it attracts more residents to the lake.

This near record-breaking rainfall has some asking if the El Niño is connected? McManus had this to say:

“With the amount of rainfall that we’ve seen since mid-April, and the strength of the current El Niño, there is probably a connection there.”

McManus says that during Oklahoma’s summer is when we see little impact from El Niño.

“There aren’t too many well-established patterns during the summer. The connection with El Niño dies down during the hot season.”

There is potential to say that the wet and unsettled pattern we have experienced since April could continue during the summer. There is just not a lot of historical data to support it.

“The same type of pattern should exist into the fall and next winter, if the El Niño persists and even continues to strengthen,” says McManus.

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Severe Weather Possible Saturday

Saturday offers the potential for a few severe storms, so let's check it out:

SATURDAY:

First off, let's take a look at the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

The area in orange has the best shot for severe weather. Image from the SPC Website:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Saturday should start off with a complex of storms moving through the state in the early morning.

After those storms move out, eyes turn to the western half of the state* for development. The big question is how quickly will we clear out? The faster the area clears out, the better chance for development and severe storms.

You can track the storms with WARN Live Interactive Radar Here: Warn Live Radar

It appears that the storms that do develop during the afternoon tomorrow will form a line that will come racing through our half of the state during the evening.* Hail, winds, and an isolated tornado will be possible.

*Note that this is not set in stone. I am simply giving you a broad idea what to expect and how things might play out. The locations and timing of this is VERY likely to change. I will try to update this post as that happens but more frequent updates will be posted on my Twitter and Facebook pages.

As always, the forecast changes frequently so I encourage you to connect with me on my social media profiles listed below for updated forecasts.

My facebook page: @JordanoWX
Twitter: @JordanoWX

Oklahoma Earthquakes and What You Can Do About Them

The chart shows all magnitudes of earthquakes. (0.0 and up)

If you have lived in Oklahoma the past few years, there is a 75 percent chance you have felt an earthquake. Earthquakes have been on a drastic increase in recent years, and geologists are concerned it is only a matter of time before a damaging earthquake occurs.

"The rate of earthquakes in Oklahoma has increased remarkably since October 2013–by about 50 percent – significantly increasing the chance for a damaging magnitude 5.5 or greater quake in central Oklahoma." 

In 2009, Oklahoma saw a total of 50* earthquakes. Yes, just 50 for the entire year. It sounds pretty hard to believe that since last year in 2014 we had 5,417*. Since 2009, the number of earthquakes has been exponentially increasing. The frequency of earthquakes has increased to where we have at least two a day.

Geologists fear that the increase in earthquakes would suggest that a large, damaging earthquake has a higher probability of occurring. In a joint press release issued last year by the United States Geological Survey and the Oklahoma Geological Survey, “The rate of earthquakes in Oklahoma has increased remarkably since October 2013–by about 50 percent – significantly increasing the chance for a damaging magnitude 5.5 or greater quake in central Oklahoma.”

The number of earthquakes being reported felt has also increased dramatically. In Nov. of 2011, a 5.6 magnitude earthquake centered in the town of Prague, damaged buildings and injured a few people. It is the largest earthquake ever recorded in Oklahoma history.

Many geologists have come to a conclusion that it is no longer a matter of “if” a damaging earthquake will occur, but rather “when” it will occur.

With the earthquakes on a drastic rise, someone might ask what one can do to prepare themselves for the “Big One”?    

One of the first things you can do is make sure your home is secure. You should also have a family communication plan and an emergency earthquake kit prepared. An earthquake drill with your family would also be a good idea so that family members know what to do when an earthquake occurs.

What does an earthquake kit consist of?

The following is a list from ready.gov on what a kit should contain:

1) Water- one gallon of water per person per day for at least three days, for drinking and sanitation
2) Food- at least a three-day supply of non-perishable food.
3)Battery-powered or hand crank radio and a NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert and extra batteries for both.
4) Flashlight and extra batteries.
5) First aid kit
6) Whistle to signal for help.
7) Dust mask to help filter contaminated air and plastic sheeting and duct tape to shelter-in-place.
8) Moist towelettes, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal sanitation.
9) Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities.
10) Manual can opener for food.
11) Local maps
12) Cell phone with chargers, inverter or solar charger.

Many insurance companies in Oklahoma have started offering earthquake insurance to its customers. Although it may seem like a silly thing to most, let’s not forget that an earthquake has the potential to cause catastrophic damage. On Aug. 24, 2014, a 6.0 magnitude earthquake struck South Napa Valley, Cali. It injured 208 people and killed one. The total economic losses for that earthquake is estimated around $400 million.**

Earthquake insurance could help a person after an earthquake occurs, but what about during? I have listed a few tips on what to do during an earthquake. These tips are also tips from ready.gov, an emergency preparedness website.

If you are inside your home:

1) Stay away from glass, windows, outside doors and walls, and anything that could fall, such as lighting fixtures or furniture.
2) DO NOT get in a doorway as this does not provide protection from falling or flying objects and you likely will not be able to remain standing.
3) Stay inside until the shaking stops and it is safe to go outside. Do not exit a building during the shaking. Research has shown that most injuries occur when people inside buildings attempt to move to a different location inside the building or try to leave.
4) DO NOT use the elevators.
5) Be aware that the electricity may go out or the sprinkler systems or fire alarms may turn on.

If you are outside or in your vehicle:

1) If you can, move away from buildings, streetlights, and utility wires.
2) Stop as quickly as safety permits and stay in the vehicle. Avoid stopping near or under buildings, trees, overpasses, and utility wires.
3) Proceed cautiously once the earthquake has stopped. Avoid roads, bridges, or ramps that might have been damaged by the earthquake.

*The total number of all earthquakes magnitude 0.0 and above. This information is from the Oklahoma Geological Survey earthquake catalogs.
**Information and estimates are from the United States Geological Survey.

Follow Jordan Overton on Twitter: @JordanoWX

Significant Severe Weather Possible this Week

Severe Weather is in the forecast. Let's break down the threat and take an closer look at the weather situation.

TUESDAY:*
First, Let's take a look at the official risk area from the Storm Prediction Center:

SPC Outlook for Tuesday, April 7

At this time, a slight risk* for severe storms is present. The threat for severe storms is there, but it looks like a highly conditional threat. In other words, if a storm is able to get going, the environment is highly conductive of severe weather with all modes possible. The million dollar question is "IF" a storm can get going. IF any storms do get going, they would likely not reach our area until around sunset.* Tuesdays threat remains highly in question. It will be one of those "wait and see" type of days. One other scenario is that a complex develops in southeastern Kansas and brushes the far northeast corners of the viewing area.*

WEDNESDAY:*
Again, Let's take a look at the official risk area from the Storm Prediction Center:

SPC Outlook for Wednesday, April 6

At this time, a enhanced risk* for severe storms in present. This day is the most concerning day of all. All modes of severe weather will be possible. As most severe events are, this looks to occur during the afternoon and evening hours*. The most likely scenario is that storms could develop along the dry line in Western Oklahoma and work towards the viewing area late in the day*. When it comes to a general, widespread threat for severe, this day is the most favorable. Significant severe weather will be possible.

THURSDAY:*
Again, Let's take a look at the official risk area from the Storm Prediction Center:

SPC Outlook for Thursday, April 8

At this time, a slight risk* for severe storms is present. Be aware that this could shift back to the west* some. Thursdays risk area will depend on how Tuesday and especially Wednesday go*. Either way, significant severe weather is possible on Thursday*. All modes are possible.

The Storm Prediction Center has updated their severe weather risk categories for this storm season. Here is a graphic that outlines what each category means:

The big thing to take away from this post is that severe weather is possible multiple days this week. It is spring, and you should be prepared for the worst.

*Note that this is not set in stone. I am simply giving you a broad idea what to expect and how things might play out. The locations, timing, and risk categories are VERY likely to change. I will try to update this post as that happens but, more frequent updates will be posted on my Twitter and Facebook pages. The links to those are posted below.

My Facebook Page: JordanoWX
Twitter: @JordanoWX

Afton Tornado Rated EF-1

The tornado that occurred around 10 pm on April 2 near the Afton area has been rated an EF-1 from the National Weather Service Office in Tulsa. The maximum winds are estimated to be 100 to 110 mph. The tornado was on the ground for 20 minutes. It went a total of 12.3 miles. One person was injured during the tornado but thankfully no one died.

The National Weather service is still working to try to confirm if there was any more tornadoes on April 2nd. As of right now, the total number of tornadoes in Oklahoma has risen to 5. All of those tornadoes have occurred in the past 3 weeks. 

The past few events have brought some significant hail to the area. Greg Cabin, Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center, put together a well displayed chart comparing hail events in March from the past few years:

Image credit to Greg Cabin at the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. This image can be found here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/ 

Pretty interesting in my opinion. Looking ahead into this week, there is good potential we could see more severe weather. Don't let your guard down! 

Follow Jordan Overton on Twitter: @JordanoWX

It's All My Fault! Tornadoes in Tulsa!

One week after I write about how slow the severe weather season has started, Tornadoes are touching down in Tulsa!

Stunning video still from @f5chaserokla stream yesterday. Incredible what nature can do. Prayers to all affected. pic.twitter.com/QiEgZGih1H
— Jordan Overton (@JordanoWX) March 27, 2015

An confirmed EF-2 Tornado occurred in western Tulsa near Sand Springs. The tornado is estimated to have winds 125-135 mph. The tornado cost the life of one person and injured 30 others. Thankfully, an excellent warning lead time by the National Weather Service Office in Tulsa allowed many to take cover in time. Here's a preliminary look the track of the tornado:

Yesterday, the NWS rated the tornado on Wednesday that hit Sand Springs an EF2. #OKwx pic.twitter.com/EQkPJVJfH5
— Travis Meyer (@newson6wxguy) March 27, 2015

The track will continue to be redefined as the National Weather Service office in Tulsa looks at all of the damage reports and radar data. Another tornado occurred just south of Tulsa International airport.

Here's the latest on the path/intensity of the #Tornado in #Tulsa on Wednesday evening. 2.3 mi. long, 800 yds wide. pic.twitter.com/xDjylbzT17
— Michael Grogan KOTV (@GroganontheGO) March 30, 2015

There was also scattered reports of straight line wind damage across most of the Tulsa Metro. Don't forget straight line winds of a large magnitude can do just as much damage as an EF-0 tornado.

Last Wednesday is a firm reminder that although the storm season may start slow or become quiet, it only takes one tornado to cause destructive damage and take the life of a person. You should always be prepared no matter how low the tornado threat may be.

Follow Jordan Overton on Twitter: @JordanoWX

Severe Weather Back in the Forecast

Spring is here, which means severe weather is back in the forecast. Let's take an inside look at the situation.

TUESDAY: 
Latest Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

 An slight risk has been issued for places just east of Tulsa. We are looking at the potential for scattered thunderstorms capable of becoming severe during the late afternoon/evening hours*. At this time, it appears the best chances for severe storms will be closer to the OK/ARK/MO borders.* Although the tornado risk is low, one cannot be ruled out.

WEDNESDAY:
Latest Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

As you can see from the picture, the outlook area is much further west into Oklahoma. I think this is our best shot overall for widespread severe weather in the sooner state. We are looking at the potential for storms to break out in the late* afternoon along a cold front. The key to severe threats here is how long can the storm cells stay discrete. That is the key. If a storm is able to stay discrete there will be an isolated tornado potential along with hail/wind. If the storms quickly merge into a linear line then we are looking at primarily a hail/wind threat. At this time, it appears that will merge into a line rather quickly and so the main threats will be hail/wind.

The bottom line to remember here is that storms are back in the forecast just like every spring here in Oklahoma. You should always be prepared for severe weather and not wait until the warning is issued before deciding to take action. It only takes one storm to cause serious damage to lives and property.

You can always find official watch and warning information here: NWS Tulsa

You can track the storms with WARN Live Interactive Radar Here: Warn Live Radar

*Note that this is not set in stone. I am simply giving you a broad idea what to expect and how things might play out. The locations and timing of this is VERY likely to change. I will try to update this post as that happens but more frequent updates will be posted on my Twitter and Facebook pages.

My Facebook Page: JordanoWX
Twitter: @JordanoWX

Record Slow Start to Severe Weather Season in March

March has gotten off to a record quiet start this year for severe weather. So far, there has been zero Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watches for the month of March. Greg Cabin with the Storm Prediction Center recently said “This has never happened in the record of SPC (Storm Prediction Center) watches dating back to 1970." The SPC, located in Norman, Oklahoma is responsible for issuing severe weather watches for the entire nation.

The reason for the lack of severe weather? Well, the current weather patterns just does not support it. "We're in a persistent pattern that suppresses severe weather, and the right ingredients -- moisture, instability, and lift -- have not been brought together in any consistent way so far this year." Said Cabin in a press release.

Although severe weather may not be in the forecast now, it does not mean you should not be prepared. As all of us Oklahoman’s know, the pattern can change at any moment. Do not let your guard down just because we have not seen anything yet!

If you would like more information about the Storm Prediction Center or would like to view the press release as a whole, you can visit SPC's website here: Storm Prediction Center.

Follow Jordan Overton on Twitter: @JordanoWX

A Quick Recap of February

Welcome to March! You just set your clocks back last night and I bet we are all wishing we had that extra hour of sleep! Anyway, Let's recap February and see how we did:

February 2015 was the 12th Coldest on record for Tulsa. #okwx
— Jordan Overton (@JordanoWX) March 6, 2015

Yes, That's right! The 12th coldest on record with a temperature of 36, about 6 degrees below normal!!

How about Snowfall?

In February, #Tulsa had 6.1" of snow, which was also the 12th highest on record. #okwx
— Jordan Overton (@JordanoWX) March 6, 2015

That last stretch of February was Brutal! It seemed like everyday there was a chance for snow! The month as a whole was a pretty incredible month full of swings. It appears that as we work our way into March the swings will continue. The latest 6 to 10 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center are putting us "Above Normal" for temperatures! In fact, we could very well see temperatures in the 70s this week. If that happens we are talking temperatures running almost 10 degrees above normal! That would be quite the change!

You can always see the latest outlooks here: 6 to 10 day Outlooks

So, the March Madness of Temperatures continues!

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A Look Ahead

Winter is keeping its hold on most of the nation at the moment. Take a look at the temperature departure from normal for last week:

Temperatures last week were well below normal east of the Rockies. Image from @WBAnalytics #cold pic.twitter.com/lvInZ8VsJW
— Jordan Overton (@JordanoWX) January 13, 2015

As you can see, places east of the Rocky Mountains were well below normal. This was all thanks to cold Arctic air from the north.

Coming up this weekend, a change in the pattern looks to occur. Take a look at the temperature trend for the next 7 days:

Image from WeatherBELL Models

Notice how the temperatures start to warm and moderate. We could see highs up to 60 on Saturday and Sunday! Skies will be on the mostly sunny side, and winds should remain fairly light through at least the weekend.

The big question everyone has is how long is the warm weather going to last? Well, as of the time of this post, the next week or two look fairly quiet and calm. When I look into the extended range, one of the things I look for is consistency. I want to give you an example. Take a look at a pressure map from the European Weather Model. We will look at the same forecast hour (6AM January 21):.

This is this mornings model run:

Image from: WeatherBELL Models

The thing I want you to look for in this picture is the area in the blue box. Now take a look at yesterday's run:

Image from: WeatherBELL Models

Big differences, as you can see. Yesterdays run was developing a Low pressure system while this mornings run keeps High pressure in control. The run to run consistency in the extended range is nowhere near where it needs to be to make a accurate forecast this far out. In most cases, the closer to time the event is the better agreement the data is; therefore, a higher confidence forecast can be produced.

What is my point in saying all this? It's hard to tell you exactly what is going to happen when the run to run consistency is nowhere close as shown above!

My Forecast: I think we go into a calm and mild pattern for at least a week or two. Things could get interesting towards the end of the month/early February.

Follow Jordan Overton on Twitter: @JordanoWX

A Tornado in December??

Well, This is Oklahoma right? I mean we all know there is no such thing as seasons, the weather is just made up and we all just have to live with it. Sunday started out like every day has with the never ending fog and low clouds. Around 6pm, the tornado warning sirens were sounding in Oklahoma City. The reason? This right here:

Breaking: Image of a small #tornado touching down near Arcadia, OK from SkyNews 9. #okwx pic.twitter.com/wcqFBSk2kr
— Rusty Surette (@rustysurette) December 14, 2014

Yes, A confirmed tornado occurred in Northeastern Oklahoma County. It has been given a rating of an EF-0, which is the lowest rating you can give a tornado. It was on the ground for about a minute or less. Another unconfirmed tornado occurred near Apache:

Funnel cloud almost touching down! @NWSNorman #okwx pic.twitter.com/oBMbDulKEK
— Brandon Sullivan (@BTSullivan91) December 14, 2014

Here's a graphic from the great folks at The National Weather Service Office in Norman outlining yesterdays tornado event:

CORRECTION! Last OK tornado was in Adair County 12/31/2010. Sorry for the confusion! Updated graphic - #okwx pic.twitter.com/zV326J706H
— NWS Norman (@NWSNorman) December 15, 2014

Tornadoes weren't the only thing that occurred yesterday, the Oklahoma City Metro also saw some large hail!

Mesta Park @NWSNorman pic.twitter.com/SPDbExDNSE
— Megan Jester (@meggiejester) December 14, 2014

Are tornadoes in December normal for the state? Not really. Oklahoma has only seen 24 confirmed since the records began. You can view the complete list here: Oklahoma December Tornado Stats

What does all this mean? Just because it is December doesn't mean you should let your guard down! Anytime you have the right pieces to the puzzle anything can happen! Yesterday was a good example! Don't think just because it is December does not mean tornadoes can't happen! It only takes one!

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Good chance for a soaking rain this weekend!

Yes, We sure do. Take a look at the total rainfall for the past 14 days from the always awesome Oklahoma Mesonet:

Image can be found here: 14 Day Rainfall Accumulation

Only place that has received more than 1" would be the lucky people in Mt. Herman. Tulsa is currently down over 11" for the year. Oklahoma could sure use some good soaking rainfall, and it looks like our wish might be granted!

A cutoff low scenario looks to be setting up over the weekend. Let's take a look at how this may play out. Here is what one model, the GFS, is suggesting will happen Sunday evening at 6pm:

Image from www.weatherbell.com

Notice the "L" on the southwestern half of the state and the rain on the right side of it.  Now take a look at midnight Sunday:

Image from www.weatherbell.com

The "L" goes away. Technically, It's still there, right in the south central part of Oklahoma. Notice how the rain just moves across the state from west to east. If this model were to verify, a good soaking rain would impact the state. One of the other models we look at, the European, is also suggesting this scenario. Agreement this far out is something we need to take into account, as that is a good sign this may happen. Our friends at the Climate Prediction Center also agree with this senerio because take a look at their 6 to 10 day precipitation map:

6 to 10 day Precipitation Outlooks can always be found here: CPC 6 to 10

Bullseye right over Oklahoma for Above normal rainfall? I'll take that anyday! How much could we get? Both of the Models(GFS and EURO) agree on about 1", with the GFS a little more aggressive with higher totals. Official forecast from the Weather Predication Center is shown here:

Image can be found here: WPC Day 1-7 QPF

So, good chances for a soaking rain this weekend. When will it happen? Looks like at the moment it will occur late Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. This may change as we get closer to time. Best way to keep up with the changes? Check out my social media profiles listed below for the latest information and updates!

Follow Jordan Overton on Twitter: @JordanoWX
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A Recap of Fall

Seems like yesterday I was talking about the beginning of fall.. Time flies, doesn't it? Anyway, as I like to do this every time the season changes, here we go again! Welcome to Meteorological Winter!

Let's take a quick look how we did this past fall.  Check out the global temperatures departure from normal for Meteorological Fall (Sep,Oct, Nov)

September:

Image from WeatherBell Models

October:

Image from WeatherBell Models

November:

Image from WeatherBell Models

It has been a crazy fall this year for us, from dropping almost 60 degrees in one day to seeing one of the earliest dates of measurable snowfall! Oklahoma sure is living up to it's name!

Taking a look at Tulsa, here's some more local stats:

2014 FALL AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE FOR TULSA 

September: 73.8 Degrees
October: 63.5 Degrees *18th warmest on record
November: 45.1 Degrees *11th coldest on record

2014 AVERAGE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR TULSA

September: 2.19" 

October: 4.82" *35th wettest on record

November: 2.10" 

Pretty drastic swings from one month to the next! Will this trend continue? Let's take a look at the December Outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center:

Temperature:

Precipitation:

November was the 11th coldest, and current projections suggest December will be on the warm side. How much warmer? Time will tell. SO, the trend of crazy flip flops continue!

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How would you like to be buried in 5 FEET of snow?

This cold has been to the extreme. In fact, on November 19th, The U.S. experienced it's coldest morning on record since 1976! Tulsa also set a new record low of 14 degrees! The previous record was 19 set back in 1951.

We also saw some wintry precipitation this past weekend! Here's some of the totals from the Tulsa National Weather service office: 

If you'd like to see more snow, then I'd advise you to move to Buffalo, NY area! So far they have received around 5 FEET 5 inches! It's incredible! Why are they seeing this? It's called lake effect snow. How does it work? Here's a graphic explaining what is going on: 

Photo Credit: NOAA

Basically, You have cold air moving over warm water. that creates the clouds and then eventually causes the snow. It's a very rare event. The thing about lake affect snow is that one place could see 5 feet, where as 1 mile away could see a foot. Lancaster, NY has gotten around 5' of snow whereas the Buffalo airport got less than 5". Big deal? They are 6 miles away from each other. 

Here's an incredible time-lapse video from Jason Holler & Joseph DeBenedictis of it happening. Notice how it is training in one area the entire time:

The result is this: 

Buffalo it still getting pummeled with lake effect snow through the night.. Pretty amazing sight actually.. pic.twitter.com/CfEFzQ2zR5
— Jay McKee (@JayMcKee74) November 19, 2014

Oh you know, just leaning against a wall of snow. ❄️ pic.twitter.com/CdcWviE1MV
— Gio Benitez (@GioBenitez) November 19, 2014

Literally the snow is crashing through homes in Buffalo! @10weather @ABC @AriWeather @Ken_Brewer pic.twitter.com/rzUl4GR5Qf
— Sherri Grin (@SherriGrin) November 19, 2014

Nope, that's not a white wall behind my son #BuffaloSnow pic.twitter.com/xlm4EgQOu7
— Shannon Fisher (@ShanV11) November 18, 2014

In Blasdell pic.twitter.com/w5Hf6Z55PL
— Christian Steiner (@csteiner1230) November 18, 2014

Good Lord! MT @NWSIndianapolis: RT @TrainerAmyIndy: Friend in #Buffalo opened her garage door & it looked like this: pic.twitter.com/hNsA7dakdk
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) November 19, 2014

RT @JayMcKee74. Hard to fathom unless you are there. Looks 5-6' to me. Wow. Now where do you go? #LES #Snow #nywx pic.twitter.com/XWU8c5ghWw
— Marc Franz Jr (@WxmanFranz) November 19, 2014

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Winter has arrived.

Well, We did. Thanks to a cold front that was one of the strongest we have seen this year. Look at a comparison of the highs Monday to the highs Tuesday:

Some places in the panhandle dropped almost 50 degrees! The cold is here to stay, as we can see by the latest run of the GFS model. Don't focus on exact numbers, just look at the general trend:

Image from www.weatherbell.com

Now, If it's going to be cold, at least we could get some snow, right? Well, we may be in luck! The models are going back and forth on this weekend. This flip flopping is lowering confidence dramatically for the event. The main point I want to stress is there is a good chance for some precipitation Saturday and Sunday, just still unsure what type it will be. For example, Let's compare the GFS run from Wednesday morning to the GFS run from Tuesday morning (As I say all the time, NOT a forecast just a model):

Tuesday Morning GFS snowfall amounts by Sunday at 6PM:

Map from www.weatherbell.com

Now look at what Wednesday mornings run for snowfall amounts by Sunday at 6PM:

Map from www.weatherbell.com

Big differences. It goes from a dusting to a couple inches in parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. My point? Try to forecast a model that is constantly flip flopping back and forth like this. It's a headache. This is why we can't just look at one run and say blizzard or nothing. The run to run consistency is extremely poor, leading to an overall very low confidence forecast.

So you might ask, How do you forecast something like this? Well, we wait till the model shows some better run to run consistency. Typically, as we get closer to the event the higher accuracy the model has. What can I take away from this? The model is consistently putting out some sort of precipitation, just unsure what type it will be. We will have to watch what the temperatures are higher up in the atmosphere and what the surface temperatures are by the time the weekend comes.

As we are talking about winter precipitation, let's take a quick look at what determines rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain:

Image can be found here: http://www.weathergamut.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/winter_precip.jpg

My two cents(forecast): We could have to deal with some wintry precipitation. Follow me on Twitter and Facebook. I will post the latest information there. You can find the links below:

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Rainfall Update and..... Cold?

My goodness! Oklahoma got exactly what it needed Monday night into Tuesday! Check out these totals from the Oklahoma Mesonet:

Map can be found Here: Oklahoma Mesonet 3 Day Rainfall Totals

FANTASTIC! BRAVO! Exactly what we needed. 

Looking ahead, I have some good news and some bad news. Weather or not you consider it good or bad news is purely dependent on if you like winter or not. Models are suggesting a major cold shot to the eastern half of the nation next week. Here's the latest 6 to 10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center: 

You can find the latest 6 to 10 day temperature outlooks here: 6 to 10 day temperature outlook

BRRRRRR! Let's investigate this closer. Here's a model simulation showing the temperature trend from now into the next week. As always, just a model, not a forecast: 

GFS Model for Tulsa. Map from: WeatherBell Models

Notice the dip in the temperatures on the Tuesday time frame. That model has us only getting into the lower 40s as highs Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Is the model out to lunch or is it up to something? Time will tell. 

My forecast: Get the heavy coats ready.

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Climate Battles

Yes, it really is October. No, It doesn't feel like October. Yes, It was very warm this past weekend. No, this is not normal. Yes, this is Oklahoma.

My friends, We are in a climate battle. Summer and even spring to some extent want to stick around, but old man winter also is ready to make an appearance.  Check out these highs yesterday from the Oklahoma Mesonet:

Yeah, It sure felt hot. It also seemed like we were all going to blow away. Check out yesterdays maximum wind gusts also from the Oklahoma Mesonet:

Don't you just love living in Oklahoma??

Today, we have a cold front moving through the state. You can watch the temperatures drop as it moves through by clicking here: Current Temperatures In Oklahoma

That cold front will help us cool off some. A reinforcing shot of cold air comes in on Thursday. Highs the rest of this week will be more fall-like in the lower 70s and upper 60s. Tulsa's normal high this time of year is right around 70.

Last weekend summer won the battle. This week fall will win the battle. It appears old man winter may be coming to join the fight this weekend. Check out what the GFS is predicting for lows Saturday Morning(This is NOT a forecast):

Notice this is NOT a forecast rather a possibility. Image from WeatherBell.com

And now look at Sunday Morning(NOT a forecast):

Again, NOT a forecast, rather a possibility. Map made by WeatherBell.com

BRRRRR!!!! Just the thought of upper 30s for lows after seeing 80s yesterday... Oklahoma is the land of crazy.

My forecast? I think some locations on the far northeastern corner of the state MAY reach the upper 30s. Notice we are still 5 days away from this so it could go either way. That's why you check back for updates on my social media profiles I have listed below. Have a great week!

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