An El Niño advisory was issued in early March by the Climate Prediction Center, which is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.
El Niño occurs when warm (above average) ocean water develops in the Pacific Ocean off the western coasts of South America and Mexico.
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| The “Niño Region” is near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. It is here where scientists monitor sea surface temperatures to determine if an El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral phase is occurring. Illustration provided by the National Climate Data Center |
La Niña, which is the opposite of El Niño, occurs when the water temperature is below average. If the sea surface temperature is near normal, it is considered an neutral phase.
The threshold for above or below average sea surface temperatures is 0.5 degrees Celsius. The past month the sea surface temperature in the Niño region has continued to rise above normal.
Gary McManus, the state climatologist, keeps an eye on Oklahoma climate and monitors the El Niño situation. He says the El Niño has become quite strong this year:
“The El Niño is actually quite strong for this time of year, having just strengthened in April and then into May.”
We are now continued to experience El Niño conditions in May and now into early June.
The Climate Prediction Center says there is a 90 percent chance that El Niño conditions will continue for the summer of 2015, and an greater than 80 percent chance it will continue in the winter.
What are the affects of an El Niño in Oklahoma?
Typically, in El Niño years, we see cooler and wetter conditions for the state, especially during the spring.
“The impacts during the spring are generally a wetter and cooler than normal footprint across Texas and New Mexico, with Oklahoma being caught up in that pattern at times,” says McManus.
The month of April and May have continued to have above normal rainfall for Tulsa.
The official measurements for rainfall in Tulsa come from the rain gauge at the Tulsa International Airport.
Tulsa ended up with a total of 14.77” of rain for the month of May, which is nearly nine inches above normal.
According to the Oklahoma Mesonet, the month of May was the wettest month on record for the state, with an average of 14.40”.
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| Oklahoma has continued to see above normal rainfall for the month of May. Graphic provided by the Oklahoma Mesonet |
Another interesting thing to point out is that for the month of May, Tulsa recorded rain on 22 of the total 31 days. The normal number for the entire month is 11.
Oklahoma has experienced a widespread drought across the entire state for the past five years. The hardest hit areas have been the western half.
For the first time in many years, lakes and streams are starting to fill up again after being down by many feet for the duration of the drought.
Skiatook Lake, which is located northwest of Tulsa, was down nearly 17 feet at the beginning of the year.
The recent rains have brought the lake level up to just near six feet below normal. That’s a eleven foot improvement in about a month!
Lake side marinas and business are profiting from the rising lake levels as it attracts more residents to the lake.
This near record-breaking rainfall has some asking if the El Niño is connected? McManus had this to say:
“With the amount of rainfall that we’ve seen since mid-April, and the strength of the current El Niño, there is probably a connection there.”
McManus says that during Oklahoma’s summer is when we see little impact from El Niño.
“There aren’t too many well-established patterns during the summer. The connection with El Niño dies down during the hot season.”
There is potential to say that the wet and unsettled pattern we have experienced since April could continue during the summer. There is just not a lot of historical data to support it.
“The same type of pattern should exist into the fall and next winter, if the El Niño persists and even continues to strengthen,” says McManus.
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